Demographic Transition Model

Stages of demographic transition model

As we have discussed, the DTM shows how birth rates, death rates, and natural increase influence the total population in a country. However, the DTM includes 5 very important stages that countries progress through, as these population figures change. Simply, as the country in question goes through the different stages, the total population will rise, as birth rates and death rates change. Take a look at the more simple image of the DTM below (this one is easier to remember than the more complicated one above!).

Fig. 2 - Simpler diagram of the demographic transition model

The different stages of the DTM can indicate the levels of development within a country. Make sure you read our measure of development explanation to understand this a little better. As a country progresses through the DTM, the more developed they become. We'll discuss the reasons for this in each stage

Stage 1: high stationary

In stage 1, the total population is relatively low, but birth rates and death rates are both very high. Natural increase doesn't occur, as the birth rates and death rates are somewhat balanced. Stage 1 is symbolic of less developed countries, that haven't gone through the processes of industrialisation, and have a much more agricultural-based society. Birth rates are higher due to limited access to fertility education and contraception, and in some cases, religious differences. Death rates are very high due to poor access to health care, inadequate sanitation, and higher prominence of diseases or issues like food insecurity and water insecurity.

Stage 2: early expanding

Stage 2 involves a population boom! This results from a country beginning to show signs of development. Birth rates are still high, but death rates go down. This results in a higher natural increase, and therefore total population rises dramatically. Death rates go down due to improvements in things like healthcare, food production, and water quality.

Stage 3: late expanding

In stage 3, the population is still increasing. However, birth rates begin to reduce, and with lower death rates too, the pace of natural increase starts to slow. The decline in birth rates can be because of improved access to contraception, and changes in the desire to have children, as changes in gender equality influence whether women may or may not stay at home. Having bigger families isn't so necessary anymore, as industrialisation occurs, fewer children are needed to work in the agricultural sector. Fewer children are also dying; therefore, births are reduced.

Stage 4: low stationary

In the more historical model of the DTM, stage 4 was actually the final stage. Stage 4 still shows a relatively high population, with a low birth rate and a low death rate. This means that the total population doesn't really rise, it stays pretty stagnate. However, in some cases, the population may begin to decline, as a result of fewer births (because of things like a reduced desire for children). This means there is no replacement rate, as fewer people are being born. This decline can actually result in an ageing population. Stage 4 is usually associated with much higher levels of development.

Stage 5: decline or incline?

Stage 5 can also represent decline, where the total population isn't replacing itself.

However, this is contested; look at both of the DTM images above, which show uncertainty about whether the population is going to rise again or fall even further. The death rate remains low and stable, but fertility rates could go either way in the future. It could even depend on the country that we are talking about. Migration could also influence the population of a country.

Demographic transition model example

Examples and case studies are just as important as models and graphs for us geographers! Let's have a look at some examples of countries that are in each of the stages of the DTM.

• Stage 1: In the present day, no country is actually considered in this stage anymore. This stage may only be representative of tribes that may live far away from any major population centres.
• Stage 2: This stage is represented by countries with very low levels of development, such as Afghanistan, Niger, or Yemen.²

• Stage 3: In this stage, development levels are improving, such as in India or Turkey.
• Stage 4: Stage 4 can be seen in much of the developed world, such as the United States, the majority of Europe, or countries in the oceanic continent, like Australia or New Zealand.
• Stage 5: Germany's population is predicted to drop by the middle of the 21st century, and drastically age. Japan, too, is a good example of how stage 5 could represent decline; Japan has the oldest population in the world, the longest life expectancy globally, and is experiencing population decline.

Demographic transition model strengths and weaknesses

Like most theories, concepts, or models, there are both strengths and weaknesses to the DTM. Let's take a look at both of these.

Table 1