Conflicts in the Middle East

Brief recent history of the Middle East

The Middle East is an ethnically and culturally diverse region made up of different nations. Generally, the nations can be characterised by comparatively low levels of economic liberalisation and high levels of authoritarianism. Arabic is the most widely spoken language and Islam is the most widely practiced religion in the Middle East.

Fig. 1 - Map of the Middle East

The term Middle East came to common use after World War 2. It is formed of what was previously known as the Arab States of West Asia and North Africa, which were members of the Arab League and non-Arab states of Iran, Israel, Egypt, and Turkey. The Arab League makes decisions on member states. Much of the modern Middle East was formerly part of the Ottoman Empire and was consequently carved up by the Allies following the war and in response to Arab nationalism. Tribal and religious identities before and after these events already contribute to the development of conflicts in the area.

• Most of the Ottoman Empire became Turkey.

• Armenian provinces were given to Russia and Lebanon.

• Most of Syria, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia were handed to France.

• Iraq, Egypt, Palestine, Jordan, Southern Yemen and the rest of Syria were given to Britain.

• This was until the Sykes-Picot Agreement which led to independence in the mid-1960s.

Though a part of North Africa, Egypt is considered part of the Middle East as a lot of migration between Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries occurred over millennia. The MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region is often considered part of the Greater Middle East, which includes Israel and parts of central Asia. Turkey is often left out of the Middle East and is not usually considered part of the MENA region.

Causes of conflict in the Middle East

The causes of conflicts in the Middle East are intermingled and can be difficult to understand. The use of theories to explain this complicated topic may lack cultural sensitivity.

Causes of conflict in the Middle East: New turbulence

Widely-known unpredictable events began at the start of this century including:

• 9/11 attacks (2001).

• The Iraq War and its butterfly effects (started in 2003).

• The Arab Spring Uprisings (starting 2010) led to the fall of four long-established Arab regimes: Iraq, Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya. This destabilised the region and had a knock-on effect in the surrounding areas.

• Iran foreign policy and its nuclear aspirations.

• The still currently unresolved Palestine and Israel conflict.

The Western media focuses heavily on the Middle East as an area of terrorists as a result of political Islamic ideology but this is not true. While there are small groups of extremists that operate in this region, this only represents a tiny subset of the population. There has been an increasing number of political Islam but this has only been a migration from the traditional pan Arabia thinking that has been deemed ineffective and outdated by many. This has often been associated with a level of humiliation felt on both a personal and political level as there seems to be foreign support and direct foreign interventions towards repressive regimes. ⁽²⁾

Causes of conflict in the Middle East: Historical connections

Middle Eastern conflicts have mainly been civil wars. The Collier and Hoeffler model, which has been used to describe poverty as the leading predictor of conflict in Africa, has not been useful in the Middle East setting. The group found that ethnic dominance and regime type were important when predicting Middle Eastern conflict. Islamic countries and oil dependency were not significantly important in predicting conflict, despite reporting by Western media. This is because the area has complex geopolitical relations combined with the supply of vital energy resources from this region. This attracts the main players in world politics to intervene in tensions and conflicts across the region. Damage to the Middle East’s oil infrastructure would have a massive global impact on the world’s oil output, and by extension, the global economy. The United States and the UK invaded Iraq in 2003 in an attempt to reduce the local conflict at the time. Similarly, Israel aids the United States to maintain influence in the Arab world but has caused controversy (see the case study in our Political Power article).

Why are there so many conflicts in the Middle East?

We just touched upon some of the reasons for conflict in the region, which can be summarised as a competition for resources in a group of nations with contrasting cultural beliefs. This is fuelled by their ex-colonial powers. This does not answer why they are difficult to resolve. Political science offers some suggestions that this is a result of contrasting economic development in the region that can only fund military dominance for a short time.

Conflicts in the Middle East: Conflict cycle

During rising tensions, there are typically some chances to prevent conflict. However, if no resolution can be agreed upon, war is likely to result. The six-day war in 1967 between Israel, Syria, and Jordan was sparked at the Cairo conference in 1964, and actions taken by the USSR, Nasser, and the United States contributed to an exacerbation of tensions.

Conflicts in the Middle East: Power cycle theory

Countries experience upturns and downturns in economic and military capabilities which benefit or weaken their positions in conflict. Baghdad’s invasion of Iran in 1980 increased Iraqi power but lowered Iranian and Saudi power, which contributed as a driver to the invasion of Kuwait in 1990 (as part of the Gulf War). This resulted in the United States stepping up interventions and even launching its own invasion of Kuwait in the following year. President Bush repeated incorrect Iraqi smear campaign messages during the invasion. It would be very difficult for Iraq to take on the States currently simply because of an imbalance in power.

Current conflicts in the Middle East

Here is a summary of the major conflicts in the Middle East:

• The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been one of the longest ongoing conflicts. The 70th anniversary of the conflict was in 2020.

• Other long term conflict zones are Afghanistan, the Caucasus, the Horn of Africa, and Sudan.

• The region is home to two of the wars with the most international participants: Iraq in 1991 and 2003.

• The Middle East is a highly militarised region which will likely be enough to continuously cause tensions in the region for a long time to come.

Ethnic and religious conflict in the Middle East

The Middle East was the birthplace of three religions: Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. The largest religion practised in the region is Islam. There are two major strands of Islam: Sunni and Shia, with Sunnis making up the vast majority (85%). Iran has a large Shia population and Shia populations form an influential minority in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq. As a result of contrasting beliefs and practices, inter-Islamic rivalry and conflict has existed since the early development of the religion, both within countries and between neighbours. Additionally, there are ethnic and historic tribal differences resulting in cultural tensions that exacerbate the situation. This includes the application of Sharia laws.

Water wars coming conflicts in the Middle East

As the threat of global warming looms above us, many believe that the next conflicts will arise over access (and lack of access) to freshwater. Freshwater in the Middle East mostly comes from rivers. Several rivers in the region lost half of their annual flow when temperatures exceeded over 50 degrees in the summer of 2021. Part of the reason for the loss is due to the building of dams in the basins which increases evaporation rates. Not only does the construction of dams reduce access to water, but it also has the potential to increase geopolitical tensions because they can be viewed as an active way of one country blocking water access from another country, and using their rightful supply. In the event of water insecurity, not all countries can afford desalination (as this is a very expensive technique) and are likely to use less water-intensive farming methods as solutions to reduced freshwater supplies. A heavily contended area is the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Another example is the Israel-Palestine conflict where control of the River Jordan in Gaza has been majorly sought after.

Conflicts in the Middle East Case Study: Tigris and Euphrates Rivers

The Tigris and Euphrates rivers run through Turkey, Syria, and Iraq (in this order) before entering the Persian Gulf via the Mesopotamian Marshes. The rivers merge into the southern marshes – also known as the Fertile Crescent – where one of the first-ever large-scale irrigation systems was built. This is also where the first-ever recorded water war took place 4,500 years ago. Currently, the rivers host major diversion dams which supply hydroelectric power and water to millions. Many of Islamic State’s (IS) battles have been fought over large dams.

Fig. 2 - Map of the Fertile Crescent (highlighted green)

Conflicts in the Middle East: Iraq, the United States, and Haditha Dam

Upstream of the Euphrates is the Haditha Dam which regulates the flow of water across all of Iraq for irrigation and a third of the country’s electricity. The United States, invested in Iraqi oil, directed a series of airstrikes that were targeting IS at the dam in 2014.

Conflicts in the Middle East: IS and Fallujah Dam

Downstream of Syria is Iraq where the Euphrates is diverted for massive crop irrigation projects. In 2014, IS captured and shut down the dam causing the reservoir behind to overflow east. Rebels reopened the dam which caused flooding downstream. The Iraqi army has since recaptured the dam aided by airstrikes from the United States.

Conflicts in the Middle East: Iraq and Mosul Dam

Mosul Dam is a structurally unstable reservoir on the Tigris. Failure of the dam would flood Mosul City, Iraq’s second-biggest city, within three hours and then flood Baghdad within 72 hours. IS captured the dam in 2014 but it was retaken by the Iraqi and Kurdish forces in 2014 supported by airstrikes by the United States.

Conflicts in the Middle East: IS and the Battle of Tabqa

In 2017, IS successfully captured the Tabqa Dam in Northern Syria which barricades the Euphrates as it flows out of Turkey. Tabqa Dam is the largest dam in Syria. It fills Lake Assad, a reservoir that supplies Syria’s largest city, Aleppo. Syrian Democratic Forces, supported by the United States, regained control in May 2017.

International influence in conflicts in the Middle East

Ex-western imperialism of the Middle East still influences current Middle Eastern politics. This is because the Middle East still contains valuable resources, and instability in the region will result in a damaging domino effect on the global economy. A well-known example is the involvement of the United States and the United Kingdom in the invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003. Debates on whether this was the correct decision are still ongoing, especially since the United States only decided to leave in 2021.

Conflicts in the Middle East: The sides of the Six-Day War of 1967

Heavy tensions existed between Israel and some Arab countries (Syria, Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan), despite a United Nations Security Council Resolution 242. This resolution was sought after by the United Kingdom to protect the Suez Canal, which is critical for trade and economic activity. In response to Israel and the associated tension, the Arab countries mentioned earlier cut oil supplies to Europe and the United States. The fourth Arab-Israeli conflict led to a ceasefire signing. Arab-United Kingdom relations have been poor since the War as the United Kingdom was seen to be sided with Israel.

Understanding conflicts in the Middle East can be complex. It is important to remember the history involved and the extent to which the West has influenced or caused tension.