Incumbency

The Meaning of Incumbency

The incumbency factor is a well-understood factor in elections. A candidate who already holds the office they are up for in an election holds historical and structural advantages. The benefits of incumbency result in an increased chance of winning an election. Let's look at why.

Advantages of Incumbency

• The incumbent already holds the office they are seeking, which can give the appearance of being able to do the job.

• Incumbents tend to have a record of policies, legislation, and accomplishments that they can highlight.

• Incumbents typically have a large staff that often assists with campaign support and sets up opportunities and appearances for the office holder. Mailings to constituents and legislative staff can assist with campaign initiatives with experience in the process.

• Popularity can be developed during the current term with name recognition and media coverage. When voters head to the polls, obscure candidates often lose out to well-known rivals.

• Fundraising clout and name recognition can scare off challengers (both primary and in general elections)

• Power of the "Bully Pulpit." The President's national platform and media coverage are substantial.

Fig. 2 President Roosevelt in Maine 1902

The "Bully Pulpit"

The youngest person to become President, Theodore Roosevelt, brought energy and an outspoken approach to his role as President after the assassination of President William McKinley. Roosevelt used what he called the 'bully pulpit," meaning it was a good preaching position to advance his policies and ambitions. He responded to critics who challenged his outspoken nature with:

Roosevelt's expansion of executive power and the national stage made this phrase an enduring theme of Presidential and national power.

Disadvantages of Incumbency

• Track record. The other side of the track record coin is that failures or accomplishments may be disagreeable to voters. Candidates who have not held that office can offer a fresh face.

• Incumbent candidates typically have to navigate criticism over their actions in office, which can take a toll on their favorability rating among voters.

• Redistricting at the state and national level (U.S. House) occurs every ten years, potentially impacting Congressional incumbents.

• In a presidential election year, the President typically helps Congressional candidates of the same party. In mid-term elections, the party opposed to the President typically benefits in Congressional races.

Examples of Incumbency

Political scientists have studied the phenomenon of incumbency in America since the 1800s. Both Presidential and Congressional elections highlight the importance of incumbency.

Presidential Elections

Let's look at the 12 Presidential Elections from 1980 - 2024. Historically, an incumbent President has strong chance of winning re-election, but recent elections demonstrate a weakened incumbent advantage.

Recent Presidential Elections

Figure 3, StudySmarter Original.

Incumbent Streaks

The incumbent advantage was particularly noticeable in three periods of U.S. Presidential Elections:

1. Thomas Jefferson (re-elected in 1804), James Madison (re-elected in 1812), and James Monroe (re-elected in 1820) began the first streak of three successive incumbent wins.

2. Franklin D. Roosevelt, first elected in 1932 was re-elected in 1936, 1940, and 1944. Before presidential terms limits, F.D.R. had a clear incumbent advantage as Americans chose to keep one President during much of the Great Depression and most of World War Two.

3. More recently; Bill Clinton (re-elected in 1996), George W. Bush (re-elected in 2004), and Barack Obama (re-elected in 2012) all won successive elections as the incumbent U.S. President.

Out of the 46 U.S. Presidents, three chose not to run and 11 lost despite their incumbent status. Re-election is aided by incumbency advantages.

-Professor David Mayhew - Yale University

Congressional Elections

In Congressional races, incumbents usually win re-election. Due to fundraising advantages, track records, staff assistance (in Washington and in their districts), and name recognition; members of Congress seeking a new term have distinct advantages.

In the last 60 years:

✔ 92% of House incumbents won re-election (2-year terms with no limits).

and

✔ 78% of Senate incumbents won re-election (6-year terms with no limits).

In Congressional elections, the advantages of being the incumbent are overwhelmingly clear.