Brexit

Reasons for Brexit

Prime Minister David Cameron had promised to call a referendum on Britain's EU membership during his 2015 election campaign to answer criticism from eurosceptics in his own party and to prevent further defections to Nigel Farage's UKIP party. Before the referendum, Cameron had tried to renegotiate Britain's EU membership conditions. EU leaders complied with some of Cameron's requests, such as reimbursing the UK for money spent on eurozone bail-outs, excluding the UK from the EU's 'ever-closer union' obligation, and permitting Britain freed not to pay social benefits to migrant workers who had been in the UK for less than 7 years. However, they refused to budge on issues such as immigration, citing the EU's commitment to freedom of movement.

Immigration was a significant concern for many Britons, due to a considerable rise in migration from EU countries since the early 1990s - from an average of 61,000 per year to 268,000 in 2014.¹ As Cameron had failed to satisfy anti-immigration voices in his own party and beyond, the 'Leave' campaigns, led by Conservative London Mayor Boris Johnson and UKIP leader Nigel Farage, exploited this concern by predicting an enormous influx of immigrants if Britain stayed in the EU.

Fig 1. Nigel Farage's UKIP party campaigns to leave the European Union

Furthermore, the leave campaign successfully linked this concern to the idea of 'taking back control' from the EU. This idea resonated with nationalist sentiments amongst older voters and those concerned about excessive EU regulations and environmental standards, and believed that that EU laws and regulations were a threat to British Sovereignty. The leave campaign also took advantage of the fact that the UK was a net contributor to the EU budget and claimed that by leaving the EU, the UK could afford to spend an extra £350 million on the NHS, with Boris Johnson telling The Guardian

Overall, voter turnout in areas expected to vote leave were much larger than areas who were expected to vote remain. Around 64% of registered voters aged 18-24 voted, compared to 90% of over-65s. This played a major role in the results, as polls showed that older voters generally supported Brexit. The result was a clear win for the 'leavel' campaign.

Fig. 2 The Brexit referendum results

The Remain campaign had initially been confident as it had the support of the government and was endorsed by the Bank of England and the security establishment. They focused mainly on the security and economic benefits of remaining in the EU and warned of costly economic damages if the UK left the single market. Their campaign was labelled 'project fear' by their opposition, who accused them of using scare tactics to convince people to vote remain. The association of the remain campaign with imminent economic doom, fear mongering and their initial over-confidence, as well as the countervailing charismatic image of politicians like Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson, may have also encouraged higher turnout amongst leave-inclined voters.

Brexit Timeline

David Cameron (11 May 2010 – 13 July 2016)

David Cameron announced his intention to resign as Prime Minister on the 24 June 2016, after 51.9% of voters voted to leave the EU. Having passionately campaigned to remain in the EU against prominent members of his own party, Cameron's popularity had faltered both within the Conservative party and amongst voters. He therefore believed that new leadership was required to lead Britain through Brexit, stating

David Cameron officially resigned as Prime Minister on July 13, 2016, after Theresa May secured leadership of the Conservative party on July 11, 2016.

Theresa May (13 July 2016 – 24 July 2019)

Despite supporting the 'Remain' Campaign, Theresa May promised to deliver Brexit, saying

May officially triggered Article 50 on March 29, 2017, beginning a two-year negotiation period between the UK and the EU on the specifics of Brexit. May also called a snap election in June 2017 hoping to gain a larger majority for her party in Parliament and therefore more support for her negotiating position.

The result was a loss of the conservative governing majority, forcing the party to rely on the support of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist party (DUP). Disagreements within the Conservative party surrounding the Brexit proposal also undermined May's attempts to build consensus around the withdrawal agreement.

On 12 July 2018 the UK government published its first proposal for the agreement, agreed by Cabinet ministers. Its suggestions included continued access to the EU's single market, a 'facilitated customs agreement' between the bloc and the UK and no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

The proposal failed to gain support from either conservative MPs or the EU, with the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, accusing Britain of 'cherry-picking' the benefits of EU membership without any of the responsibilities. Brexit secretary David Davis and his secretary Steve Baker both resigned in protest against the proposal, followed by foreign secretary Boris Johnson.

A revised withdrawal agreement was finally with EU leaders in November 2018, which, amongst other things, required the UK to fulfil the financial commitments it had agreed to prior to the Brexit vote totalling around £42 billion, whilst still observing EU laws and customs until the minimum term of December 2020. It also outlined a

The UK's withdrawal was set for 29, March 2019, however it still required the approval of the UK parliament. May faced strong opposition from all major parties in parliament, including her own. The main issue was the Irish 'backstop', which aimed to avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland by implementing a legally-binding customs plan with the EU which would come into force if the UK and EU failed to reach a comprehensive deal by December 2020. Many politicians, including the DUP (on whom May's governing majority depended), were deeply opposed to the backstop.

May's withdrawal agreement was rejected by Parliament on January 15 2019 by 432 to 202 votes, and then again on 12 March by 391 to 242 votes. May requested an extension on the negotiation period from the EU, which was granted until May 22 on the basis that Parliament agreed to the Withdrawal agreement by March 29, and if not, the UK must put forward new suggestions by April 12.

In a desperate attempt to get her deal through Parliament, May promised to resign if her deal was approved. On March 29, a third vote was held. The UK government was defeated once again. A second extension of the negotiation period was granted by the EU until October 31, 2019, which required the UK to part-take in the European parliamentary elections.

On May 24, Theresa May announced her resignation as PM and party leader, due to multiple votes of no confidence, insurrection by her Cabinet and her failure to get the Withdrawal Agreement approved by Parliament.

Boris Johnson (24 July 2019 – September 2022)

Boris Johnson assumed the leadership of the Conservative Party after May's resignation, and thus also became Prime Minister. Johnson's attempt to prorogue Parliament was declared as unlawful by the Supreme Court and he was criticised for proposing a 'no-deal' Brexit in the event that no deal could be reached before the deadline. On 17 October 2019, the Irish Backstop was replaced by the Northern Ireland Protocol and on 22 October, a revised Withdrawal Agreement was approved by Parliament.

Johnson managed to gain the support of Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn to pass the Early Parliamentary General Election Act 2019, allowing a general election to be held earlier than scheduled in order to meet the new deadline of January 31. The election was held on 22 December, and gave the Conservatives a comfortable 80 seat parliamentary majority. After amendments suggested by the House of Commons and the House of Lords had been completed, on January 23, 2020, the European Union Act 2020 was finally given royal assent and was supported by European Parliaments Constitutional Committee. On January 30, the EU council ratified the UK's Withdrawal agreement with 621 to 49 votes, and the UK withdrew from the EU on January 31, 2020.