Demographic Trends UK

What do demography and demographic trends mean?

Let's consider some key terms first.

What is demography?

It includes the collection of data that is used to measure things such as rates of birth, death, and migration using various concepts and techniques. The data collected for such studies is called demographic data.

Demography can be said to typically focus on five aspects (Swanson and Stephan, 2004).

1. Size
2. Geographic distribution
3. Composition
4. Components of change (births, deaths, migration)
5. Determinants and consequences of population change

What is a demographic trend?

When data is collected for a long period of time, patterns are formed with such statistics - this is essentially what a demographic trend is.

Social and demographic trends: examples

Now that we understand what demographic trends are, let us look at some interesting examples of such trends so that we can identify them better:

1. The global population has been increasing! It is estimated that the world will see a global population of 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050 and 10.9 billion by 2100!
2. The UK population alone will cross 69.6 million by mid-2029 and reach 72 million by mid-2041. (Office for National Statistics)
3. The religious profile of the world is changing! By 2050, the number of Muslims will nearly equal the number of Christians all around the world. While the Hindu and Jewish populations will also increase, the global Buddhist population is projected to be about the same size it was in 2010. This is because of changes in fertility rates, people switching faiths as well as the changing size of youth populations in different religions.

Who collects demographic data?

Multiple bodies can be involved in collecting demographic data, all for different purposes. Let us look at some of them below.

• The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the body that is responsible for planning and carrying out the census (official count of the population) for England and Wales.
• Companies and multinational organisations have specialised marketing departments to collect demographics on users, customers, or prospective client groups. Sometimes, this task is outsourced to marketing firms specialising in such work.
• Academic researchers and scientists collect demographic data for research purposes using various survey instruments.
• Political parties and campaigns collect demographic data to identify and target parts of the population for voting purposes.

What is the significance of demographic data?

The results of such studies and trends identified are used for multiple purposes, depending on who is using them. Let us look at some of the ways various parties use demographic data.

Significance of demographic data and trends for businesses

Businesses often collect and use demographic data. Some of the purposes are listed below:

1. To assess consumer behaviour and understand demand.
2. To create marketing plans and plan strategically for future trends.
3. For the segmentation of a population, to determine the size and characteristics of a potential or current market.

Significance of demographic data and trends for governments

Probably one of the most important contributions of demography for the government is to provide projections of the future population. Such a projection is essentially a forecast of the future population and its constituent groups based on certain assumptions.

Governments also use socioeconomic information to understand the age, racial makeup, and income distribution (among several other variables) in neighbourhoods, cities, states, and nations to make better public policy decisions.

Significance of demographic data and trends for economists and researchers

Economists predominantly study the production and distribution of resources, goods, and services by collecting and analysing data, researching trends, and evaluating economic issues. Thus, the collection of data relating to the human population is extremely crucial for them.

They recognise that one of the major drivers of economic growth is population growth. The more people that exist, the more workers who are available for production in the labour force; thus, there are also more people to consume goods and services.

The depth and range of analysis by researchers, in turn, are also used by governments and organisations for policy initiatives. Blaikie (1987) proposed that, in addition to macro-level study, greater micro-level study at the sub-national, community, and household levels is needed to explore the linkages between population change and concepts such as environmental change.

For this reason, demographic data has to be collected regularly and in different areas to broaden research.

Fig. 1 - Demographic data is an extremely useful tool for governments, businesses, economists and researchers, among others.

Why do demographic trends occur?

Sociologists have identified multiple reasons for such demographic trends - social, economic, cultural, legal, political, as well as technological. Of course, not each sociologist discusses the reasons behind every single trend, and neither are they all streamlined.

However, this is supposed to give you an idea of how sociologists approach this area. Let us now look at what some of the justifications for demographic trends are.

Becker (1960) theorised that the decline in fertility was a by-product of the rise in income and the associated rise in the opportunity cost of raising children. This means that people had more money to spend and realised that it would be more beneficial for them to spend that money on other activities than raising children.

Thomas McKeown (1988) theorised that the overall population growth between the late 1700s and the present was not due to advancements in the field of medicine or public health. Rather, it was a result of social and economic conditions such as increased income, diet improvements, and positive lifestyle changes. All of this led to better resistance to infections, which in turn led to reduced death rates.

This theory, however, met wide criticism and challenges. For example, the theory does not answer the question of why women, who receive less food and hence less nutrition, generally live longer than males.

Donald Hirsch (2005) held that the ageing of the population is a result of multiple factors such as increasing life expectancy, declining infant mortality, and declining fertility.

Fig. 2 - Sociologists have theorised that increased income, a nutritious diet and a better lifestyle have led to population growth in modern times.

UK demographic trends by population

Instead of brooding over many numbers and statistics, it is always easier to understand how a nation is behaving based on identifying demographic trends. Let us look at some major demographic trends in the UK by population.

The following trends have been identified by The King's Fund analysis of ONS' 2010-based National Population Projections.

Trends in the UK population

Between 2012-2032, the population in England is predicted to grow by 8 million to just over 61 million. Of these, 4.5 million will be from natural growth (births – deaths), and 3.5 million from net migration. Let's look at some more specific demographic and social trends in the UK.

More people are living alone

By 2032, 11.3 million people are expected to be living on their own, more than 40 percent of all households. The number of people over 85 living on their own is expected to grow from 573,000 to 1.4 million.

The number of births each year is expected to level off

Over time birth rates have fluctuated quite significantly. Current predictions are that the annual number of births will level off to around 680,000–730,000 births per year.

Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy are growing

In 1901, baby boys were expected to live for 45 years and girls for 49 years. In 2012, boys could expect to live for just over 79 years, and girls for 83 years. By 2032, this is expected to increase to 83 years and 87 years respectively.

Healthy life expectancy is growing at a similar rate, suggesting that the extra years of life will not necessarily be years of ill health.

The population is ageing

The combination of extending life expectancy and the ageing of those born in the baby boom (just after the Second World War) means that the population aged over 65 is growing at a much faster rate than those under 65. Over the next 20 years, the population aged 65-84 will rise by 39 percent, and those over 85 by 106 percent.

Deaths

The number of deaths each year is expected to grow by 13 percent from 462,000 to 520,000 by 2032.

Health inequalities persist

Men and women in the highest socio-economic class can, on average, expect to live just over seven years longer than those in the lowest socio-economic class, and more of those years will be disability-free.

UK demographic trends by ethnicity

How do demographic trends vary by ethnicity?

By 2031, ethnic populations will make up 15 per cent of the population in England and 37 per cent of the population in London. The United Kingdom's population is predominantly white and white British (81.88 percent, as of the 2011 Census).

Uneven migration and immigration in the UK

Immigration to the UK rose from around 500,000 to 600,000 a year between 2001 and 2005, but has remained steady since. Over the past 10 years, emigration has fluctuated between 300,000 and 400,000 a year. The net migration has therefore been about 200,000 people a year for the past 10 years.

In addition, roughly five per cent of the population of England and Wales move to local authority every year. The impact is not evenly felt, as some cities and regions have very high population change – as much as 20 per cent every year in some London boroughs.

Impact of demographic trends in the UK

The major impact of demographic trends is on governments and major businesses, whose role it is to keep up with the trends and change policies according to the requirements of the society. Let us look at the role of governments and businesses in tackling some of the trends outlined above.

Demographic and social trends changing in the UK

Let's explore some of the demographic and social trends that have been changing in the UK.

Demographic changes in the elderly population

With an ageing population, governments and businesses have a key role to play in encouraging older workers to remain in the workforce. This can include creating flexibility around retirement, creating financial incentives, reforming pension rules, ensuring that age discrimination is strongly outlawed, and re-training the older workforce to get them up to date with new skills relevant today (Hirsch, 2005).

According to Peter Townsend (1981), the negative attitude toward the elderly in our society as a dependent population is a major hindrance to society. This needs to be tackled by governments and organisations alike to educate society on the benefits of an older population with more experience.

Increasing population and the need for affordable services

With the general population increasing, policymakers may need to improve access to affordable and quality childcare, education, and health care facilities, as well as endeavour to create more job opportunities. This will also require the contribution of multinational organisations, which possess the ability to create jobs on a large scale due to their research and entrepreneurship prowess.

Increasing population and the need for infrastructure

The number of people has a direct impact on demand for infrastructure services, as people use it for various purposes. A higher number of people means more or bigger households, both of which will drive up demand for infrastructure services. Governments and energy organisations thus need to take this into account while planning developments.

Immigration as a cause of increasing population

With migration becoming more commonplace, governments need to make their economies more migrant-friendly. This requires another look at immigration laws, tax benefits, the creation of job opportunities, and the diversification of infrastructure. Businesses are likely to make their workplaces more international to attract better talent from multiple jurisdictions.

Fig. 3 - Governments and organisations need to take population growth and diversification into account while planning infrastructure development.

Demographic data and subsequent trends are crucial and helpful indicators of the direction in which policies should be introduced and further modified.